The Middle East thread Options

[NeoCzar]

Basically, I have very strong reasons to believe that a war will break out in the Middle East soon, and a real war this time, not just Tanks vs. Civilians.

To put it in a nutshell, Israel is in a very tight pickle in the moment, and it doesn't seem to be a temporary momentary thing, but gradually increasing in intensity since the 2006 war against Lebanon, and especially since the war on Gaza a year ago. Both internal and external pressures are mounting, and the only way out is, and always has been to wage a new war, to pull those dissenting voices back to line.

For beginners, the new U.S administrations has been lukewarm at best, and unprecedentedly critical of Israel at worst. Obama, unlike his predecessors who addressed specific issues in the conflict, in support of Israel, is rather threateningly vague and general in his prose, and all about "How committed we are to Israel's security", which has/is causing real concern both in Israel and the American Jewish communities. His background and origins notwithstanding, his academic connections, his appointees to various positions relevant to the Middle East have been installed despite strong opposition from the Pro-Israel lobby in the U.S. One of those examples is George Mitchell, who had previously (in the Clinton administration) incensed Israeli leaders so severely because of his stances, and who has only last week threatened Israel with cutting off loan guarantees (spell: Israeli economic collapselol) because of the Israeli failure to halt and reverse settlement activity. What would usually be expected to happen if some minor U.S official dares to threaten Israel on the record and in public, is for him/her to be called back home and apologized on behalf by the white house. This time there was silence.

That's in the administrative realm. In the media, there has been a very slow, yet intelligible shift in coverage and opinion, despite the near total control of Pro-Israel intelligentsia and cadres over Middle Eastern news coverage. "Palestinian State", "Illegal Settlements" ..etc are all phrases that were unimaginable 4 years ago in the U.S mainstream, but are circulated with relative impunity nowadays.

We can see effects of this through the often panicky and frantic commentary by U.S pro-Israel watchdogs and Israeli media (I'm a daily reader of Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth, Maa'reef).

Outside the U.S relations with the other previously-designated U.S watchdog and cop-on-the-beep, Turkey have been strained to unimaginable degrees after the war on Gaza -we all remember Erdogan's stunt at Davos-, and just this morning Erdogan had blasted Israel more fiercely than most Arab leaders have been able to in a long time, on the occasion of the Lebanese prime minister's visit.

Europe is even a more remarkable case of a not-so-slow change of news coverage and public opinion, for even after Islamically-inspired terrorist attacks, that Israel had hoped to capitalize on, public opinion and in turn policy has been untraditionally hostile to Israel, from Tzipi Livni the former minister of foreign affairs and current leader of the opposition being threatened with trial in the U.K no less, to an EU official initiative a few weeks back (that no one really asked for, there was no Arab lobbying of any sort) to declare Eastern Jerusalem the capital of the proposed Palestinian State, in stark contrast to the slow erosion Israel has always engaged in, by taking just a little more, and waiting till people got used to it, and so on. I was in Holland when the war on Gaza broke out, and having traveled to 4 EU countries throughout the war, I was truly astounded at the media coverage, which was at time on par with Al-Jazeera in its images of dead Palestinians and rhetoric.

The most important factors are its immediate neighbors. Syria has been arming up, and arming Hezbollah up, as if nothing had happened in 2006. The Israeli war against Lebanon which aimed to crush Hezbollah ended miserably, something which the Israeli military psyche cannot live with, which was subsequently turned into a political effort to isolate Syria from Lebanon, and Hezbollah inside Lebanon. That failed miserably, as all the leaders of the Lebanese "Cedar Revolution", one-by-one visited Damascus recently, kissing the ass of Bashar Al-Assad, and that episode has ended.

More alarmingly, the only reason those leaders capitulated, and Syria's role as a hegemon was restored in Lebanon, is widely believed to be the result of understanding between Damascus and Washington, where Syria quiets things down in Iraq, so the U.S can leave as soon as possible and fulfill Obama's pledge, and in return Syria can play in Lebanon (read: U.S basically is saying to Hell with Israel).

Then you've got Iran and its nuclear program, which the U.S simply will not tackle at this point, for obvious reasons, and which is viewed as an existential threat to Israel (which is stupid, but they believe it anyway).

Away from all that, there is trend of inner inequities inside Israel rising after any prolonged period of an uneasy "peace", because even though it's a Jewish state, you've got Eastern Jews (Safardim), western Jews (Ashkanazim), and African Jews most of which are Ethiopian (Falasha) that coexist uneasily due to racism and discrimination within Israel. Only yesterday a few hundred Ethiopian Jews inside Israel demonstrated against what they called ethnic discrimination ..etc.

The only good thing is that Israel still has the strongest military in the Middle East (bar Turkey of course), and Israel's short history has taught us that it doesn't let those factors escalate, because there's always a cut-off point beyond which Israel's existence itself becomes under threat, so they might as well use the military while they can. This has been the case for 1948, 1967, 1982 and 2006.

So what will happen? I reckon that Syria (where I come from) will take the bulk of the Israeli attack, since confronting Hezbollah directly hasn't, and will never yield any tangible results. So a few hundred thousand tons of explosives over Damascus should convince the Syrian leadership to cut off arms shipments to Hezbollah. While they're at it, they might use their bombers to target Iran's nuclear facilities, since no one else seems to be enthusiastic about doing it (The U.S might actually like this), and the airspace to Iran should be clear since Jordan + Iraq = Zero.

Apart from neutralizing direct military threats, this will serve in pulling the U.S administration unwantingly to a position where it toes the line in supporting Israel no matter what, since things haven't gotten bad enough for the U.S to ..say, halt arms shipments to Israel, or to come out and support the Arabs. They will basically awaken the U.S administration from their intentional slumber pertaining to the Middle East.

The only consideration is to orchestrate all of this in a way that doesn't land Israel in a worse public and international position, like what happened in 2006 and 2008, and to achieve all their goals swiftly, because everyone loves a winner.

I really think it's their only shot at regaining their prestige before things get out of hand, and to build on their achievement for the next decade. I however believe that it will change little, even if it is carried out immaculately, because the whole glove really sees it for what it is, an arrogant, pesky, annoying aggressor, so it will be a one step-forward, two steps back for them, no matter what their army looks like.

In my estimation, should happen at any point before August 2010, awaiting some suitable catalyst, such as Hezbollah firing some rockets, or Iran detonating a nuclear charge (unlikely) or trying some new long-range missile.

Thoughts?

This post has been edited by NeoCzar: Jun 19 2010, 06:31 AM